Colombia Harvest Update

Expected Crop Sizes

During 2020/2021, “the rains were higher (about 12%), with very strong rains during key flowering months,” Oscar says. These excesses in rain meant the coffee plants did not have enough “hydric stress” (water scarcity) during flowering. A little water stress during flowering is actually positive and leads to better flowering, he explains. “The coffee trees need a little water stress to stimulate good flowering.” As a result, the 2020/2021 crop was about 3% smaller than the 2019/2020 crop.

The 2021/2022 crop is expected to be about 7.7% smaller than the 2020/2021 crop, Oscar says. “The main cause of this reduction is excess rainfall in 2021 due to the La Niña phenomenon, which led to too much rain during flowering,” he says. Poor weather in Cauca, Nariño, Huila (central and northern), Eje Cafetero, and Valle del Cauca is expected to cause smaller crop sizes as well.

Rising Costs

Prices have been extremely high since the start of 2021 and the average cost of production increased nearly 45% over the span of the year. “The costs of labor and the cost of inputs were two of the main factors that impacted the overall cost of production for farmers, among others” Oscar says. “We expect inputs to remain expensive this coming year, with a potential to actually continue to increase in the first half of 2022.” These factors will likely result in continued high prices for Colombia coffees this year.

At the same time, we are seeing that these increases can lead to higher incomes for many farmers. The increases in prices for cherry and parchment has outpaced the increases in the cost of production for farmers, leading to larger incomes for many farmers. However, smaller crop size – about 7.7% on average – may offset the impact of these higher prices for some farmers.

Strong Quality Expectations

Quality is expected to be very good since the wetter weather reduced coffee berry borer attacks. “We expect to have more mid-grade coffees, and fewer low-grade coffees, due to reduced borer attacks,” Oscar says. In particular, we expect fewer beans known as Pasillas, a smaller, less developed bean often caused by borer attacks and other factors.  It is important to note that the very wet weather could affect cup quality negatively. However, we’re sourcing delicious, high-quality coffees that we’re confident meet quality standards and expectations for our clients.

We suggest that roasters cover their supply needs as soon as possible. Contact your trader to learn more about the spot offerings we have arriving soon and in store.